Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 4.149869 4.537517 4.968540 5.488139 6.104193 6.820071 7.728349
2024-12-29 3.666472 4.174959 4.781808 5.575945 6.614656 7.969916 9.954070
2025-01-05 3.287975 3.835496 4.517758 5.458876 6.775022 8.644446 11.716223
2025-01-12 3.008581 3.570778 4.293679 5.331204 6.860512 9.191461 13.440499
2025-01-19 2.761937 3.318009 4.049140 5.129196 6.785375 9.453581 14.761279
2025-01-26 2.659145 3.241670 4.028731 5.234177 7.179524 10.557715 18.191589
2025-02-02 2.607205 3.226388 4.086936 5.456647 7.795608 12.230180 24.054774
2025-02-09 2.536175 3.176951 4.088410 5.586992 8.275719 13.806175 31.336822
2025-02-16 2.422482 3.058033 3.975562 5.516344 8.373960 14.598561 37.195506
2025-02-23 2.327107 2.958952 3.883977 5.469106 8.506010 15.519295 45.190704
2025-03-02 2.238265 2.863837 3.790888 5.408103 8.598486 16.380945 55.026640
2025-03-09 2.159085 2.778434 3.706633 5.353100 8.693105 17.294536 68.369130
2025-03-16 2.094740 2.713297 3.652305 5.350477 8.911069 18.715279 94.024746
2025-03-23 2.053977 2.681451 3.648917 5.440605 9.356919 21.144142 161.299711
2025-03-30 1.977475 2.591007 3.543872 5.328461 9.308520 21.839628 220.332518
2025-04-06 1.904614 2.503058 3.438092 5.205771 9.215659 22.345042 305.271124
2025-04-13 1.823347 2.399060 3.300687 5.011471 8.918392 21.913745 345.807692
2025-04-20 1.800562 2.385163 3.313245 5.112471 9.388688 25.069852 1872.972674
2025-04-27 1.797819 2.402267 3.378855 5.326335 10.212614 30.905814 NaN
2025-05-04 1.779985 2.394282 3.400323 5.451533 10.829763 36.734482 NaN
2025-05-11 1.733502 2.338186 3.334087 5.383685 10.860533 38.848466 NaN
2025-05-18 1.692988 2.290346 3.280221 5.338305 10.954456 41.689173 NaN
2025-05-25 1.652735 2.241563 3.222413 5.279688 10.997196 44.303885 NaN